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An important and overlooked reason why people expecting high bonuses this year may be deluded
13 October 2009
In all the excitement about the potential size of this year’s bonuses (higher stock options and obligatory charitable donations not withstanding), an important factor has been overlooked: timing.
Historically, bonus season evolved roughly as follows:
• Goldman Sachs announced in mid-December
• Morgan Stanley, Lehman and Bear Stearns announced days after Goldman.
• Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, BofA, and JP Morgan announced in mid January.
• Deutsche, Credit Suisse and UBS announced in mid to late January.
• Remaining European banks announced in January and February.
This created a favourable dynamic: by announcing first, Goldman raised the game for everyone else. For example, in 2007/2008 John Mack was widely reputed to have increased Morgan Stanley bonuses (and with them, the bank’s compensation ratio), after apprehending just how much Goldman Sachs had paid out.
This has all changed. Now that Goldman has become a bank holding company, it will report its full year results in January.
As a result, and as the timing of this week’s 3Q announcements shows (Citigroup and Goldman both announce on the 15th, and JP Morgan announces on the 14th) earnings and bonuses are now likely to be announced almost simultaneously across different houses.
Henceforth, banks will have to second guess the size of rivals’ bonus pools, without the luxury of published compensation costs as a measuring stick. Goldman Sachs will no longer set the bar, and the bar will almost certainly fall.
How do you apprehend how much another firm paid out.
Comprehend?!
Mr. Frank White 13 Oct 2009
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